Innovative approaches to identifying regional responses of biodiversity to climate change LP100200080

Funding: 2011: $120,000
2012: $100,000
2013: $100,000

Project Member(s): Ramp, D.

Funding or Partner Organisation: Australian Research Council (ARC Linkage Projects)
Australian Museum (Australian Museum Partnership Funds)
Department of Environment and Climate Change NSW

Start year: 2010

Summary: Australia is facing a biodiversity extinction crisis that is likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Existing models of climate at regional scales require significant advancement, not only to better understand impacts on biodiversity, but also to assist with decision making and adaptation strategies. We will produce innovative and robust climate maps that are at a scale that is relevant for regional management, enabling us to predict how management actions interact with climate change to affect climate and biodiversity. We innovatively identify climate refugia and quantify the effectiveness of existing processes of conservation decision making. It engages the community in climate science and provides considerable scientific training. We aim to develop innovative approaches to identify how biodiversity responds to climate change at the regional scale. This innovative cross-disciplinary project is significant because it will produce climate models that are more detailed and better reflect the climate experienced in species habitats. We will test our climate models by predicting the distribution of biodiversity and identifying microrefugia that are relatively unaffectedby climate change. We expect to show that our innovative climate maps and statistical methods dramatically improve predictions of how biodiversity responds to regional climate change. Our findings will advance amajor paradigm shift occurring in climate change ecology and land management.

Publications:

Gollan, JR, Ramp, D & Ashcroft, MB 2015, 'Contrasting topoclimate, long‐term macroclimatic averages, and habitat variables for modelling ant biodiversity at landscape scales', Insect Conservation and Diversity, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 43-53.
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Gollan, JR, Ramp, D & Ashcroft, MB 2014, 'Assessing the Distribution and Protection Status of Two Types of Cool Environment to Facilitate Their Conservation under Climate Change', CONSERVATION BIOLOGY, vol. 28, no. 2, pp. 456-466.
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Slavich, E, Warton, DI, Ashcroft, MB, Gollan, JR & Ramp, D 2014, 'Topoclimate versus macroclimate: how does climate mapping methodology affect species distribution models and climate change projections?', DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, vol. 20, no. 8, pp. 952-963.
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Gollan, JR, Ashcroft, MB & Ramp, D 2013, 'Fine-grained climate data alters the interpretation of a trait-based cline', ECOSPHERE, vol. 4, no. 12, pp. 154-163.
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Letten, AD, Ashcroft, MB, Keith, DA, Gollan, JR & Ramp, D 2013, 'The importance of temporal climate variability for spatial patterns in plant diversity', ECOGRAPHY, vol. 36, no. 12, pp. 1341-1349.
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FOR Codes: Ecological Impacts of Climate Change, Applied Statistics, Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Australia (excl. Social Impacts), Ecosystem Assessment and Management at Regional or Larger Scales, Land and Water Management of environments not elsewhere classified, Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation, Applied statistics , Other environmental management not elsewhere classified, Assessment and management of Antarctic and Southern Ocean ecosystems, Effects of climate change on Australia (excl. social impacts)