Geweke, J. 1982, 'Feedback Between Monetary Policy, Labor Market Activity, and Wage Inflation in the United States, 1955-1978' in Workers, Jobs and Inflation, Brookings Institution Press, Washington, pp. 159-198.
Geweke, J 1982, 'Measurement of Linear Dependence and Feedback Between Multiple Time Series', Journal of the American Statistical Association.
Abstract: To economically evaluate a new. drug or other medical innovation one must assess both the changes in costs and in benefits. Safety and efficacy matter, but so do resource costs and social benefits. This paper evaluates the effects on expenditures of the recent introduction of cimetidine, a drug used in the prevention and treatment of duodenal ulcers. This evaluation is of interest in its own right and also as a "guide" for studying similar effects of other innovations. State Medicaid records are used to test the effects on hospitalization and aggregate medical care expenditures of this new medical innovation. After controlling to the extent possible for potential selection bias, we find that: 1) usage of cimetidine is associated with a lower level of medical care expenditures and fewer days of hospitalization per patient for those duodenal ulcer patients who had zero health care expenditures and zero days of hospitalization during the presample period; an annual cost saving of some $320.00 (20 per cent) per patient is indicated. Further analysis disclosed, however, that this saving was lower for patients with somewhat higher levels of health care expenditures and hospitalization in the presample period, and to some extent was reversed for the patients whose prior year's medical care expenditures and hospitalization were highest.
Geweke, J, Parzen, E, Pierce, D, Wei, W & Zellner, A 1982, 'The Measurement of Linear Dependence and Feedback Between Multiple Time Series', Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 77, pp. 304-324.
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Abstract: Measures of linear dependence and feedback for multiple time series are defined. The measure of linear dependence is the sum of the measure of linear feedback from the first series to the second, linear feedback from the second to the first, and instantaneous linear feedback. The measures are nonnegative, and zero only when feedback (causality) of the relevant type is absent. The measures of linear feedback from one series
Geweke, J. 1982, 'New Divisia Indices of the Money Supply', Proceedings of the Business and Economics Section, American Statistical Association.