Publications

De Abreu Lourenco, R 1995, 'Capital Flows Between Australia and PECC Countries, included in Capital Flows in the Pacific Region : Past Trends and Future Prospects, Pacific Economic Outlook', PEO Structure, Japan Committee for Pacific Economic Outlook.

De Abreu Lourenco, R 1995, 'Demand Shocks, Inflation and The Business Cycle', Reserve Bank of Australia, Research Discussion Paper Number 9411.

De Abreu Lourenco, R 1995, 'Price Stickiness and Inflation, Reserve Bank of Australia', Research Discussion Paper Number 9502.

el-Sayed, H, Goodall, SR & Hainsworth, R 1995, 'Re-evaluation of Evans blue dye dilution method of plasma volume measurement.', Clin Lab Haematol, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 189-194.
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To simplify the method of plasma volume measurement by Evans blue dye dilution we used, for the first time, the same venous site for injection of dye and collection of samples. In a series of 49 studies the dye decay between 10 and 35 min after injection was highly linear (r = 0.991 +/- 0.01), indicating that contamination of samples is very unlikely. We repeated the measurements after eight weeks in nine patients; the mean difference was 16.4 +/- 19.6 ml, indicating a high degree of reproducibility. We found that extrapolation of the dye decay curve to time zero is required for accurate estimates of plasma volume. There was good agreement between the estimates of plasma volume obtained by extrapolation from only three samples taken at 10, 20 and 30 min after dye injection with the results obtained using all six samples. We also found good agreement between the estimates of plasma volume obtained by using standard curves constructed from four standard dilutions of 1.25, 2.5, 5 and 10 mg/l and those obtained by the use of standard curves constructed from the blank and only one standard dilution of 10 mg/l. We therefore conclude that the Evans blue technique can be simplified with minimal loss of accuracy, by using only one venous site for injection and withdrawal, withdrawing only three samples between 10 and 30 min after injection and using a two point calibration line.

Haas, M, Rushworth, RL & Rob, MI 1995, 'Health Services and the Elderly: an Evaluation of Utilisation Data', Australian Journal on Ageing, vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 176-180.
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Medical and diagnostic services for people aged 65 and over comprise a substantial proportion of all services provided by the Health Insurance Commission under the Medicare Benefits Schedule. To examine the utilisation of these services by people in this age group, we analysed de‐identified data on a cohort of people who claimed for at least one such service in NSW in 1991. The total number of services claimed for by this cohort of 7,724 people was 144,658. The median number of services received by individuals during the year was 13.5 per person for the cohort (or 9.9 for the total group). Of the total services reimbursed, 64.7% were for doctors' consultations, 24.8% were for diagnostic services and 10.6% were for other services, predominantly operations. The most common claims were for visits to a general practitioner for a standard consultation. Service utilisation differed between the age and sex categories of the patients in the study sample. Utilisation tended to increase with age and was more common among women than men for several of the service groups considered. We report the results of these analyses and discuss the potential benefits and disadvantages of using claims data to evaluate utilisation of medical and diagnostic services, and current clinical practices.

SCOTT, A & HALL, J 1995, 'EVALUATING THE EFFECTS OF GP REMUNERATION - PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS', HEALTH POLICY, vol. 31, no. 3, pp. 183-195.
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General practice reform is occurring in a number of countries. Little is known, however, of the effects of remunerating general practitioners on the costs and outcomes of care. Valuable lessons can be learned for the scope and design of future research,

TONKIN, A, AYLWARD, P, COLQUHOUN, D, GLASZIOU, P, HARRIS, P, HUNT, D, MACMAHON, S, NESTEL, P, SHARPE, N, SIMES, J, THOMPSON, P, THOMSON, A, WEST, M, WHITE, H, SHAW, J, ABLETT, M, MACASKILL, M, TURNER, R, MAGNUS, P, WALLACE, P, KEECH, A, NEWELL, D, RAUPACH, H, HALL, J, MULRAY, S, WISEMAN, V, DAVIES, P, HAGUE, W, SMITHERS, D, BAKER, J, HOBBS, M, SULLIVAN, D, DALY, J, LUNDIEJENKINS, H, MORRISON, J, MULRAY, P, PATER, H, PHILIP, R, RYERSON, S, SAZHIN, V, MARTIN, A, NGUYEN, A, DREW, J, RATTOS, D, CLAGUE, A, HALL, A, MACKIE, M, YALLOP, J, BOSS, K, BARTER, P, BEILIN, L, COLLINS, R, MCNEIL, J, MEIER, P, WILLIMOTT, H, WHITING, M, SHEPARD, M, LEACH, J, GANDY, M, JOUGHAN, J, SEABROOK, J, COUPLAND, L, MCGILL, D, TARIMER, P, BEINART, I, MCKEE, H, ABRAHAM, R, PARNELL, G, VILES, A, BUNYAN, N, GRANT, S, ONEILL, M, WIKRAMANAYAKE, R, BROWNPAUL, P, CROWE, J, WAITES, J, WALKER, R, ALLEN, J, PAWSEY, C, WYNDHAM, R, BATES, F, BROWN, D, THOMAS, J, WOODS, J, HELLESTRAND, K, PATERSON, S, CALVERT, D, CONDONPAOLONI, D, OWENSBY, A, OWENSBY, D, RYAN, J, SILBERBERG, J, TAYLOR, M, ONUMA, S, WEE, K, KAVA, M, MCLEAN, A, QUINN, K, ADAMS, L, DAVIDSON, P, TAYLOR, D, TURNER, J, WALSH, W, WILCKEN, D, DWYER, B, FULCHER, G, NELSON, G, OREILLY, F, PADLEY, J, SCAMMELL, R, KRITHARIDES, L, NEELY, R, THRELFALL, M, CUNIO, N, RAMSAY, D, SINCLAIR, S, CAMPBELL, T, SAMBROOK, B, WEST, P, CUTHBERT, B, CUTHBERT, N, HALL, S, NEAVERSON, M, RUSSELL, M, BRIGGS, H, BROUGHTON, A, POWELL, A, SOUTHGATE, K, CALAFIORE, P, PHILLIPS, P, TIPPETT, J, CAVENETT, Y, RYAN, W, COUNSELL, J, KRAFCHEK, J, MARTIN, M, CHAMPNESS, L, CLARK, R, LYALL, I, STEINFORT, C, TYACK, B, YEE, R, CONNOR, H, HARRAP, H, WILSON, R, ZIFFER, R, BUNCLE, A, FISHER, A, LARWILL, H, PRENDERGAST, H, QUILTY, W, CARRICK, L, DRISCOLL, A, HAMER, A, HOOTEN, M, HOPKINS, L, FORGE, B, MULLAN, L, WALKER, N, DERWENTSMITH, G, MASON, B, OGILVY, D, BARNETT, K, ROSE, D, MERTA, J, SOWARD, A, ZANONI, M, BOGETIC, Z, MARKS, S, WAHLQVIST, M, JACKSON, B, RUDGE, C, GREEN, N, LEEDMAN, P, SALLABERGER, M, VOUKELATOS, J, POLZELLA, L, SIA, B, MCCABE, J, PHELPS, G, HODGENS, S, MEDLEY, C, WHITTEN, S, CARRUTHERS, T, COOKE, B, HADFIELD, C, ARONEY, G, HICKS, P, KENNEDY, P, LEGOOD, H, SCOTT, I, ANDERSON, K, EKIN, F, REAL, G, COVERDALE, S, ELDER, R, SMITHORR, V, WICKS, B, WICKS, J, CARLE, A, HASKING, G, OBRIEN, D, ROSSLEE, L, WOODHOUSE, S, BOYD, K, ROBERTS, K, SAMPSON, J, CARROLL, P & et al. 1995, 'DESIGN-FEATURES AND BASE-LINE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LIPID (LONG-TERM INTERVENTION WITH PRAVASTATIN IN ISCHEMIC DISEASE) STUDY - A RANDOMIZED TRIAL IN PATIENTS WITH PREVIOUS ACUTE MYOCARDIAL-INFARCTION AND/OR UNSTABLE ANGINA-PECTORIS', AMERICAN JOURNAL OF CARDIOLOGY, vol. 76, no. 7, pp. 474-479.

Towler, B, Irwig, L, Glasziou, P, Haas, M, Plunkett, A & Salkeld, G 1995, 'The potential benefits and harms of screening for colorectal cancer', Australian Journal of Public Health, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 24-28.
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Abstract: Australian guidelines for colorectal cancer screening for average‐risk populations vary from recommendations for annual screening by faecal occult blood testing for those over 40 years to recommendations that screening may be appropriate if requested by an informed patient aged 50 to 75 years. There are five large screening trials, of which three have published mortality data. A meta‐analysis of the mortality data suggests a 19 per cent reduction in colorectal cancer mortality (95 per cent confidence intervals 0.68 to 0.96) with Hemoccult screening. Because of the width of the confidence interval, decisions about the magnitude of the effect of screening should await further trial results, which should be available in the next few years. In the interim, we should examine issues of harm and costs in Australia. For example, in the major trials, over 80 per cent of positive results have been falsely positive and have required invasive investigation. Estimates of the cost‐effectiveness of screening for the Australian health system are not yet available and are essential. If the benefits of screening outweigh the harms and costs, a successful screening program would require provision of screening infrastructure and appropriate information to target populations, quality control for screening tests and investigations, recall mechanisms to ensure appropriate follow‐up of persons with positive results and the active participation of the Australian public and health practitioners.

Viney, R, Haas, M & Mooney, G 1995, 'Program budgeting and marginal analysis: A guide to resource allocation', New South Wales Public Health Bulletin, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 29-29.
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Wilson, WH, Street, DJ & Halford, GS 1970, 'Solving proportional analogy problems using tensor product networks with random representations', IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks Conference Proceedings, pp. 2971-2975.
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This paper describes the use of vectors with randomly generated components for representing concepts in a system for solving proportional analogy problems using a memory based on a tensor product network. Both dense random vectors (all or most components non-zero) and sparse random vectors (most components zero) are used. In both cases systems which are able to solve proportional analogy problems were successfully produced: the degree of success varied with the number of components in the vectors and/or the proportion of non-zero components.