Baddeley, M & Fontana, G 2005, 'Monetary policy in the informationeconomy: Old problems and newchallenges' in The New Monetary Policy: Implications and Relevance, pp. 111-128.
Gatti, D, Guilmi, C, Gaffeo, E, Gallegati, M, Giulioni, G & Palestrini, A 2005, 'Firms’ Size Distribution and Growth Rates as Determinants of Business Fluctuations' in Kirman, A & Salzano, M (eds), Economics: Complex Windows, Springer-Verlag, US, pp. 181-186.
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Houser, DE & Wooders, J 2005, 'Hard and soft closes: A field experiment on auction closing rules' in Rapoport, A & Zwick, R (eds), Experimental business research, Vol. 2: Economic and managerial perspectives, Palgrave MacMillan, Germany, pp. 123-131.
Menzies, GD, Terry, C & Trayler, RM 2005, 'Waiting for capital: the impact of corruption in Indonesian financial markets' in Gup, BE (ed), Capital Markets, Globalization, and Economic Development, Springer, New York, USA, pp. 175-191.
Bajada, C 2005, 'Unemployment and the underground economy in Australia', Applied Economics, vol. 37, no. 2, pp. 177-189.
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Despite government attempts to reduce welfare benefit fraud in Australia. participation in the underground economy by those claiming to be unemployed continues. Although there exists considerable international literature on the size of the underground ec
Bajada, C & Schneider, F 2005, 'The Shadow Economies of the Asia-Pacific', Pacific Economic Review, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 379-401.
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Despite continuous government attempts to increase taxpayer compliance, the shadow economy continues to offer a way for taxpayers to evade their taxpaying obligations. The consequences are clear: policy-makers have increasingly imperfect knowledge about
Di Guilmi, C, Gaffeo, E, Gallegati, M & Palestrini, A 2005, 'International evidence on business cycle magnitude dependence', International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 5-16.
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Are expansions and recessions more likely to end as their magnitude increases? In this paper we apply parametric hazard models to investigate this issue in a sample of 16 countries from 1881 to 2000. For the total sample we find evidence of positive magnitude dependence for recessions, while for expansions we are not able to reject the null of magnitude independence. This last result is likely due to a structural change in the mechanism guiding expansions before and after the second World War. In particular, upturns show negative magnitude dependence in the post-World War II sub-sample, meaning that in this period expansions become less likely to end as their magnitude increases.
Gatti, DD, Guilmi, CD, Gaffeo, E, Giulioni, G, Gallegati, M & Palestrini, A 2005, 'A new approach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility', Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, vol. 56, no. 4, pp. 489-512.
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In this paper, we discuss a scaling approach to business fluctuations. Our starting point consists in recognizing that concepts and methods derived from physics have allowed economists to (re)discover a set of stylized facts which have to be satisfactorily accounted for in their models. Standard macroeconomics, based on a reductionist approach centered on the representative agent, is definitely badly equipped for this task. On the contrary, we show that a simple financial fragility agent-based model, based on complex interactions of heterogeneous agents, is able to replicate a large number of scaling type stylized facts with a remarkable high degree of statistical precision. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Goldbaum, D 2005, 'Market efficiency and learning in an endogenously unstable environment', JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL, vol. 29, no. 5, pp. 953-978.
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An informationally inefficiency market is produced without an exogenous source of noise in the price. Fundamental traders acquire private information directly through research. Regression traders employ a learning process to extract the private fundamental information from the public price. The relative popularity between these two strategies evolves based on performance. The model converges towards adoption of regression analysis to the point of creating instability, endogenously producing a noisy price. The lack of a revealing price in the coupled learning and population processes reflects the Grossman and Stiglitz (Amer. Econ. Rev. 70(3)(1980)393) impossibility of informationally efficient markets.
Saunders, P & Siminski, P 2005, 'HOME OWNERSHIP AND INEQUALITY: IMPUTED RENT AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN AUSTRALIA', Economic Papers: A journal of applied economics and policy, vol. 24, no. 4, pp. 346-367.
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This paper examines the impact of home ownership on income distribution and the incidence of low‐income, using data from the Household Expenditure Surveys conducted in 1993–1994 and 1998–1999. The market‐value approach is used to derive an estimate of imputed rental income, which is added to disposable income. The results indicate that in 1998–1999, imputed rent had an equalising distributional impact, except at the very top of the distribution. This finding is robust with respect to changes in some of the assumptions that underlie it. Comparisons of low‐income rates by housing tenure and age are very sensitive to the inclusion of imputed rent as part of income, and to the deduction of housing costs from income. Analysis of the changing distributional impact of imputed rent between 1993–1994 and 1998–1999 indicates that while the effect was equalising in both years it is not possible to determine whether the impact became more or less equalising over the period. Simulation results indicate that the ‘disequalising’ impact of changes in gross housing equity (which incorporates the effect of increased house prices) explains much of the observed change in the distribution of income plus imputed rent, and accounted for much of the changed distributional impact of imputed rent itself. Overall, the results highlight the importance of taking account of imputed rent when analysing the structure and distribution of Australian living standards.
Siminski, P, Chalmers, J & McHugh, M 2005, 'Foster carers in New South Wales: Profile and projections based on ABS Census data', Children Australia, vol. 30, no. 3, pp. 17-24.
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Administrative data on foster carers in New South Wales (NSW) are sadly lacking. Based on research commissioned by the NSW Department of Community Services, this paper uses the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census of Population and Housing and other data to provide up-to-date information on the characteristics of foster carers and the demographic trends that are influencing their numbers. Census data indicate that foster carer families are most likely to contain women aged 35–54 years, not in the labour force. Couples account for two-thirds of all foster carers, with the majority of those couples also caring for birth children. While single parents account for less than one-fifth of all foster carers, they are more likely to foster than couples, either with or without birth children. Higher rates of fostering were found in relatively disadvantaged areas. Projected increases in female labour force participation are expected to contribute to a decline (or to slower growth) in the number of foster carers over the next decade. However, projected increases in sole parent families and couples without children are expected to have the opposite effect. The relative magnitude of these effects was not ascertained.
Siminski, P, Cragg, S, Middleton, R, Masso, M, Lago, L, Green, J & Edgar, K 2005, 'Primary care patients' views on why they present to Emergency Departments: Inappropriate attendances or inappropriate policy?', Australian Journal of Primary Health, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 87-87.
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This study investigates why some patients with apparently less urgent conditions present to emergency departments (EDs). We report on a survey of 'potential primary-care' ED patients, who were asked about their reasons for choosing the ED over GPs. The sample consisted of 397 patients (with a response rate of 99% = 397/400), recruited in the former Illawarra Health Area. The three main reasons selected were: self-assessed urgency; being able to see the doctor and having tests or X-rays done in the same place; and self-assessed seriousness or complexity. The results do not appear to be sensitive to two potential sources of bias (fixed question ordering and non-random sampling). The results suggest a number of potential policy levers for encouraging some people to present to GPs rather than EDs. However, the main conclusion is that the majority of 'potential primary-care' patients appear to be presenting for appropriate reasons. Thus 'inappropriate attendances' do not seem to be the cause of EDs being under stress. We also argue that the results are useful for drawing inferences more broadly than just in relation to the Illawarra.
Slonim, RL 2005, 'Competing Against Experienced and Inexperienced Players', Experimental Economics, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 55-75.
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Anufriev, M, Bottazzi, G & Pancotto, F 1970, 'Speculative equilibria and asymptotic dominance in a market with adaptive CRRA traders', Noise and Fluctuations in Econophysics and Finance, SPIE, Austin, Texas, USA, pp. 200-214.
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Dvornak, N, Kohler, M & Menzies, GD 1970, 'Australia's Medium-Run Exchange Rate: A Macroeconomic Balance Approach', Economic Record, UNSW CAER Summer Macroeconomics Workshop, Sydney, Australia, pp. 101-112.
Menzies, G & Zizzo, DJ 1970, 'Inferential Expectations', Proceeding of the Australian Conference of Economists 2004, Australian Conference of Economists 2004 - 33rd Conference of Economists, The Economics Society of Australia, Sydney, Australia, pp. 1-39.
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We propose that the formation of beliefs be treated as statistical hypothesis tests, and we label such beliefs inferential expectations. If a belief is overturned through the build-up of evidence, agents are assumed to switch to the rational expectation. Rational expectations are shown to be a special (limiting) case of inferential expectations, with the test size a becoming a metric for rationality. When inferential expectations are built into a Dornbusch-style model of the exchange rate, regression tests of Uncovered Interest Parity and the rational expectations version of the term structure both display downward bias in the slope coefficient. We present the results of an experiment that supports inferential expectations.
Arestis, P, Baddeley, M & McCombie, J 2005, 'The New Monetary Policy: Implications and Relevance'.
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'. . . this book provides a useful overview of the challenges facing the IT policy framework, both by pointing to the limitations of the underlying theory and, more importantly, by outlining the importance of a transparent policy framework for anchoring expectations. . . the book should be of interest to all central bankers and students of monetary policy.' © Philip Arestis, Michelle Baddeley and John McCombie 2005. All rights reserved.
Menzies, GD & Zizzo, D 2005, 'Inferential expectations (QFRC paper #159)'.
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ISSN 1441-8010 www.business.uts.edu.au/qfrc/research/research_papers/rp159.pdf
