Publications

Baddeley, MC & Barrowclough, DV 2009, Running Regressions, Cambridge University Press.
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Running Regressions introduces first-year social science undergraduates, particularly those studying economics and business, to the practical aspects of simple regression analysis, without adopting an esoteric, mathematical approach. It shows that statistical analysis can be simultaneously straightforward, useful and interesting, and can deal with topical, real-world issues. Each chapter introduces an economic theory or idea by relating it to an issue of topical interest, and explains how data and econometric analysis can be used to test it. The book can be used as a self-standing text or to supplement conventional econometric texts. It is also ideally suited as a guide to essays and project work.

Delavande, A, Gine, X & McKenzie, D 2009, Measuring Subjective Expectations In Developing Countries: A Critical Review And New Evidence, The World Bank.
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Di Guilmi, C 2009, 'Agent-based modelling' in Elgar Encyclopedia of Post-Keynesian Economics, pp. 4-6.

Di Guilmi, C 2009, 'Complex systems' in Elgar Encyclopedia of Post-Keynesian Economics, pp. 65-66.

Di Guilmi, C 2009, 'NAIRU' in Elgar Encyclopedia of Post-Keynesian Economics, pp. 301-302.

Maruyama, S 2009, 'Health care system in Australia - Its unique dual system' in Masako Ii (ed), National health care systems in Asia and Oceania, University of Tokyo Press, Tokyo, Japan, pp. 1-33.

Anufriev, M & Branch, WA 2009, 'Introduction to special issue on complexity in economics and finance', JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL, vol. 33, no. 5, pp. 1019-1022.
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Anufriev, M & Panchenko, V 2009, 'Asset prices, traders' behavior and market design', JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL, vol. 33, no. 5, pp. 1073-1090.
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The dynamics of a financial market with heterogeneous agents are analyzed under different market architectures. We start with a tractable behavioral model under Walrasian market clearing and simulate it under different trading protocols. The key behavioral feature of the model is the switching by agents between simple forecasting rules on the basis of a fitness measure. By analyzing the dynamics under order-driven protocols we show that the behavioral and structural assumptions of the model are closely intertwined. The high responsiveness of agents to a fitness measure causes excess volatility, but the frictions of the order-driven markets may stabilize the dynamics. We also analyze and compare allocative efficiency and time series properties under different protocols.

Bajada, C & Schneider, F 2009, 'Unemployment and the Shadow Economy in the oecd', Revue économique, vol. Vol. 60, no. 5, pp. 1033-1067.
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Résumé Alors qu’il y a eu de nombreuses discussions concernant la taille de l’économie informelle, relativement peu d’attention a été accordée au lien entre le chômage et la participation des individus à l’économie informelle. L’objectif de cet article est d’examiner la participation à l’économie informelle, des individus qui déclarent être au chômage et perçoivent ainsi des indemnités mais qui travaillent clandestinement de manière informelle. Pour ce faire, nous fournissons dans cet article une première esquisse de mesure de la contribution des chômeurs aux activités de l’économie informelle. L’intérêt d’une telle analyse en termes de politique économique est indéniable. Par exemple, une relation positive entre les activités de l’économie informelle et le chômage pourrait indiquer l’existence de cycles d’emploi dans l’économie informelle, qui, si elles sont soutenues par des prestations sociales, viendrait fausser l’équité du système de protection sociale. Nous montrons que l’évolution du chômage contribuent au cycle de l’emploi dans l’économie informelle. Ce qui tend dans l’ensemble à augmenter la durée des périodes de chômage. JEL Code: O17, O5, D78, H2, H26.

Bajada, C & Schneider, FG 2009, 'Unemployment and the shadow economy in the OECD', Revue économique, vol. 60, no. 2009/5, pp. 1033-1067.
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Although there has been considerable discussion on the size of the shadow economy, comparatively little attention has been given to relationship between unemployment and participation in this sector. The objective of this paper is to examine participation in the shadow economy by those who claim to be unemployed and in receipt of social security benefits but working surreptitiously in the shadow economy. In doing so, we provide a first attempt at gauging the contributions by the unemployed to shadow economy activity. It is of considerable policy interest to know how the extent and duration of shadow economy activity are influenced by changes in the unemployment rate. A significant positive relationship between shadow economy activity and unemployment can be said to generate employment cycles in the shadow economy, which if supported by welfare payments, distorts the equity in the social security system. We find that changes in unemployment contribute to the employment cycles in the shadow economy, which on the whole appears to increase duration spells in unemployment.

Bush, S, Menzies, G & Thorp, S 2009, 'An Array of Online Teaching Tools', Teaching Statistics, vol. 31, no. 1, pp. 17-20.
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SummaryThe Internet offers a huge array of teaching resources for statistics. Here we present a selection of engaging Web‐based tools, ranging from class surveys to individual simulation experiments.

Delavande, A & Kohler, H-P 2009, 'Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi', Demographic Research, vol. 20, pp. 817-875.
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Docherty, P 2009, 'RE‐EXAMINING THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE NEW CONSENSUS: ENDOGENOUS MONEY AND TAYLOR RULES IN A SIMPLE NEOCLASSICAL MACRO MODEL', Metroeconomica, vol. 60, no. 3, pp. 495-524.
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ABSTRACTThis paper re‐examines the impact of endogenous money in a neoclassical model with interest‐sensitive expenditures. It first outlines a benchmark model with exogenous money and the usual full employment and money growth‐determined inflation results. It then replaces exogenous money with endogenous money, which is shown to generate model indeterminacy. Two methods of resolving this indeterminacy are then explored: money illusion and a Taylor rule for monetary policy, a key feature of new consensus models. The paper concludes that endogenous money has negative implications for the behaviour and interpretation of neoclassical and new consensus models.

Docherty, PT & Tse, HP 2009, 'A survey of AS-AD models for teaching undergraduates at intermediate level', Australasian Journal of Economics Education, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 52-81.
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The Aggregate Supply-Aggregate Demand (AS-AD) model has been an important part of undergraduate teaching in economics for many years. It has, however, been the subject of recent criticism and new frameworks have been suggested to replace it. Given this antagonism, it seems a useful time to reflect on the AS-AD models suitability for teaching intermediate macroeconomics. A preliminary step in this process would be to provide a careful survey of AS-AD models used at this level. This paper surveys four common versions of the AS-AD model used in intermediate macroeconomics texts, considers the structure of these models, and carefully analyses their adjustment dynamics for negative demand and supply shocks. It argues that incorporating more than one of the approaches considered into intermediate classes would provide students with a better understanding of the state of economics and would enhance their critical skills by requiring them to understand the similarities and differences between the different approaches.

Docherty, PT & Tse, HP 2009, 'Re-evaluating the AS-AD model as a device for teaching intermediate macroeconomics', Australasian Journal of Economics Education, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 64-86.
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In the previous issue of this journal, we provided a survey of AS-AD models used in intermediate macroeconomic textbooks. That exercise was seen as preliminary to a careful consideration of criticisms made of the AS-AD model that suggest it should cease to be used as a device for teaching intermediate macroeconomics. In this paper, we undertake this investigation and examine a range of problems that have been identified with the AS-AD model. We argue that that while a number of these criticisms are valid, they may be overcome in ways that leave the model largely intact as a device for teaching the neoclassical explanation of price-output determination. One of these ways involves a new interpretation the model. We do, however, point out two more fundamental criticisms of the AS-AD model that have not featured in the literature, and argue that acceptance of these criticisms would require replacement of the neoclassical paradigm itself. Until a decision to do this is taken by the profession, we argue that a revised AS-AD model has a continuing role to play in teaching intermediate macroeconomics.

Garbarino, E & Slonim, R 2009, 'The robustness of trust and reciprocity across a heterogeneous U.S. population', Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, vol. 69, no. 3, pp. 226-240.
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Hafalir, I & Krishna, V 2009, 'Revenue and efficiency effects of resale in first-price auctions', Journal of Mathematical Economics, vol. 45, no. 9-10, pp. 589-602.
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Maruyama, S 2009, 'Estimating Sequential-Move Games by a Recursive Conditioning Simulator', UNSW Australian School of Business Research Paper, no. 2009.

Reynolds, SS & Wooders, J 2009, 'Auctions with a buy price', ECONOMIC THEORY, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 9-39.
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eBay and Yahoo allow sellers to list their auctions with a buy price at which a bidder may purchase the item immediately. On eBay, the buy-now option disappears once a bid is placed, while on Yahoo the buy-now option remains in effect throughout the auction. We show that when bidders are risk averse, both types of auctions raise seller revenue for a wide range of buy prices. The Yahoo format raises more revenue than the eBay format when bidders have either CARA or DARA. Bidders with DARA prefer the eBay auction, while bidders with CARA are indifferent between the two.

SIMINSKI, P 2009, 'A Welfare Analysis of the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card*', Economic Record, vol. 85, no. 269, pp. 164-180.
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The Commonwealth Seniors Health Card (CSHC) is a key element of a suite of benefits for Australia's ‘self‐funded retirees’. Its main component is a pharmaceutical concession, which is analysed as a form of public health insurance. The utility gain through risk‐pooling is found to be negligible under conservative assumptions. The deadweight loss through moral hazard may be considerable. Finally, the CSHC may be seen as an inequitable transfer, because CSHC holders are a particularly wealthy population.

Siminski, P 2009, 'Do Government Benefits for High Income Retirees Encourage Saving?', vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 247-261.
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The Australian government provides benefits to high income older people, which are intended to induce saving for retirement. It has not been established whether this unusual policy is effective. Using an illustrative two-period model, it is shown that these benefits may induce some people to save and work more, but they may have the opposite effect on other, more affluent, people. The magnitude and direction of the net effect on private saving remains an open empirical question. The policy may have increased Commonwealth government expenditure on relatively affluent older people and reduced state government expenditure on people with slightly less resources.

Slonim, R & Garbarino, E 2009, 'Similarities and differences between stockpiling and reference effects', Managerial and Decision Economics, vol. 30, no. 6, pp. 351-371.
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AbstractThe correlation of past prices and demand is commonly attributed to reference effects. Although reference dependence is robust, support for loss aversion is mixed; some find demand more sensitive to price increases, consistent with loss aversion, others find no difference or greater sensitivity to price decreases. Stockpiling offers an explanation for these mixed findings. Combining theory, analytical models and simulations, stockpiling and reference dependence predict similar effects and the more stockable the product, the greater sensitivity of demand to price decreases, the opposite of loss aversion. We show that a model combining stockpiling and reference effects best aligns with previous findings and under what conditions each effect should dominate. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Zhang, J & Chen, C 2009, 'The Inconvenient Truth about Improving Vehicle Fuel Efficiency: A Multi-Attributes Analysis of the Technology Efficient Frontier of the US Automobile Industry', Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, vol. 14, pp. 22-31.

Zhang, J & Wang, R 2009, 'The Role of Information Revelation in Elimination Contests', The Economic Journal, vol. 119, no. 536, pp. 613-641.
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Chiarella, C & Di Guilmi, C 1970, 'Financial instability hypothesis: A stochastic microfoundation framework', The Sixth International Workshop on Agent-based Approaches in Economic and Social Complex Systems, Taipei, Taiwan.

Chiarella, C & Di Guilmi, C 1970, 'Financial instability hypothesis: A stochastic microfoundation framework', 8th Annual Meeting of the European Economics and Finance Society International Conference, Warsaw, Poland.

Di Guilmi, C 1970, 'Financial instability hypothesis: A stochastic microfoundation framework', Paul Woolley Centre for Capital Market Dysfunctionality 2009 Annual Conference, Sydney, Australia.

Docherty, PT 1970, 'Interest rate rules in a demand-led Kaldor-Pasinetti-Sraffa-Keynes growth model', Conference on the Political Economy of Central Banking, Toronto, Canada.

Docherty, PT & Sadeghian, D 1970, 'Modelling the overnight rate: Can central banks change the policy rate without changing a financial aggregate?', Canadian Economic Association Conference, Toronto, Canada.

Fiorini, M 1970, 'The effect of home computer use on children's cognitive and non-cognitive skills', 4th Annual Society for Labor Economics Meetings, Boston, USA.

Fiorini, M & Keane, M 1970, 'How the allocation of children's time affects cognitive and non-cognitive development', Seminar Presentation, University of NSW, Sydney, Australia.

Fiorini, M & Keane, M 1970, 'How the allocation of children's time affects cognitive and non-cognitive development', Seminar Presentation, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.

Fiorini, M & Keane, M 1970, 'How the allocation of children's time affects cognitive and non-cognitive development', Seminar Presentation, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia.

Henckel, T, Menzies, GD & Zizzo, DJ 1970, 'Threshold Pricing in a Noisy World', CAMA Working Paper, Seminar Presentation, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.

Johar, M, Jones, G, Keane, M, Savage, EJ & Stavrunova, O 1970, 'The influence of waiting times on the decision to purchase private health insurance', Labour Econometrics Workshop, Brisbane.

Stavrunova, O 1970, 'Equilibrium model of waiting times for non-emergency procedures in the NSW public hospitals', III World Conference of Spatial Econometrics, Barcelona, Spain.

Stavrunova, O 1970, 'Equilibrium model of waiting times for non-emergency procedures in the NSW public hospitals', 31st Australian Conference for Health Economists, Hobart, Australia.

Zhang, J, Buckley, N, Mestelman, S, Muller, RA & Schott, S 1970, 'Shut Up and Fish: The Role of Communication when Output-Sharing is used to Manage a Common-Pool Resource', Atlantic Canada Economics Association Conference.

Anufriev, M & Branch, WA 2009, 'Introduction to the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control special issue on Complexity in Economics and Finance'.

Anufriev, M & Hommes, CH 2009, 'Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes', Working Paper Series, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
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In recent 'learning to forecast' experiments with human subjects (Hommes, et al. 2005), three different patterns in aggregate asset price behavior have been observed: slow monotonic convergence, permanent oscillations and dampened fluctuations. We construct a simple model of individual learning, based on performance based evolutionary selectionor reinforcement learning among heterogeneous expectations rules, explaining these different aggregate outcomes. Out-of-sample predictive power of our switching model is higher compared to the rational or other homogeneous expectations benchmarks. Our results show that heterogeneity in expectations is crucial to describe individual forecasting behavior as well as aggregate price behavior.

Goldbaum, D 2009, 'Follow the Leader: Steady State Analysis of a Dynamic Social Network'.
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A social pyramid is show to be the unique steady state social structure when agents gain utility from being early adopters of subsequently popular trends. The environment is related to a majority game, but introduces the importance of the timing of adoption. Utility derived from making a popular choice independent of timing is demonstrated as essential to support the hierarchy. The proposed environment is relevant to a number of settings in which leadership and timing of decisions are important or where being perceived as a trend setter is rewarded. The leadership position can be self-reinforcing. For a professional critic, for example, a cult-of personality can dictate popular tastes, such as in art, food, and wine markets. A social hierarchy can also apply to the introduction of new products or ideas including academic research and financial market analysts.

Goldbaum, D & Zwinkels, C 2009, 'An Empirical Examination of Learning in Foreign Exchange Market'.