Atalay, K, Barrett, GF & Siminski, P 2019, 'Pension incentives and the joint retirement of couples: evidence from two natural experiments', Journal of Population Economics, vol. 32, no. 3, pp. 735-767.
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© 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. Recent reforms to social security in many countries have sought to delay retirement. Given the family context in which retirement decisions are made, social security reforms have potentially important spillover effects on the labour force participation of spouses. This paper analyses two complementary Australian natural experiments: (i) the 1993 Age Pension reform that increased the eligibility age for social security benefits for women and (ii) the Vietnam veterans pension and compensation schemes, whereby eligibility was conditional on conscription lotteries. We find important within-family spillover effects that are symmetric by gender and independent of whether pension coverage is expanded or withdrawn. Taking account of such within-family spillover effects is important for understanding the behavioural effects of pension programs and for reform impacts on social welfare.
Atalay, K, Garbarino, E & Slonim, R 2019, 'Prize-linked savings accounts: combining virtue and vice to make savings more enticing', Journal of Consumer Marketing, vol. 37, no. 2, pp. 180-190.
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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate whether moral licensing – that is, doing something morally dubious after doing the “right” thing – influences the attractiveness of an existing virtue–vice bundle.Design/methodology/approachA prize-linked savings (PLS) account that combines a savings (certificate of deposit) and a probabilistic component (lottery) was examined. In two online experiments, the level of moral license offered by the PLS was manipulated through what institution offered the PLS or a lottery alternative.FindingsWhen the source of the PLS account was more moral (Study 1) or the source of the lottery was less moral (Study 2), the interest in the PLS increased.Research limitations/implicationsMoral licensing plays a role in making virtue–vice bundles appealing and supports that the need for moral license can be used to increase interest in more morally acceptable behaviour. However, manipulating moral license in the field is complex and requires further research.Practical implicationsPractitioners may increase PLS savings rates via messaging that emphasises how the saving aspect offers the customer the license to indulge in the gamble; similar to how McDonald’s sold the idea of indulging in fast food with “You deserve a break today”.Originality/valueThis paper shows that the attractiveness of the PLS virtue–vice bundle is sensitive to the moral accept...
Bajada, C & Shashnov, M 2019, 'The effects of economic development and the evolution of social institutions on the level of corruption: comparing the Asia-Pacific with other regional blocs', Asia Pacific Business Review, vol. 25, no. 4, pp. 470-500.
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© 2019, © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. The variation in the level of economic development across countries has been proposed as an explanation for the disparity in the level of corruption that is observed. As a country evolves from one stage of economic development to another and its social institutions as a result become more refined and sophisticated, their capacity to tackle corruption and poor governance practices becomes increasingly better. Improvements in the overall quality of institutions, including better policing and justice systems, increase their capacity to detect and deter corruption. This evolution of institutional quality improves social and economic well-being of society, which in turn pressures regulators, legislators and politicians to continue in the fight against corruption. The objective of this paper is to examine how economic development mediated by improvements in the quality of social institutions impacts on the level of corruption. Lessons from worldwide trends, including the Asia-Pacific region, provide opportunities for countries to enact strategic measures that can accelerate the fight against corruption.
Bajada, C, Kandlbinder, P & Trayler, R 2019, 'A general framework for cultivating innovations in higher education curriculum', Higher Education Research & Development, vol. 38, no. 3, pp. 465-478.
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© 2019, © 2019 HERDSA. Systematic changes to higher education curriculum typically occur within the extended timeframes of formal curriculum review processes. Programmes need to be reviewed periodically for internal and external accountability or to determine whether the curriculum has lost its coherence due to the accumulative effect of continual small-scale changes. These programme reviews often lend themselves to the introduction of innovations in teaching and learning however experiences suggest that these innovations are often short-lived. Even with well-thought-through project plans, adequate funding and staffing, and robust project evaluations, a curriculum innovation may fail to take hold and continue beyond the short-term. In this article we work towards developing a general framework that identifies the various factors and drivers that are essential to sustain important curriculum innovation beyond the short-term. The framework is developed from an analysis of several curriculum innovations related to the embedding of graduate attributes to highlight the important factors necessary to ensure longevity in important developments in teaching and learning.
Bochet, O, Nikiforakis, N, Reuben, E, Wooders, J & Wooders, M 2019, 'Introduction to the JPET special issues commemorating works of James Andreoni, Theodore Bergstrom, Larry Blume, and Hal Varian', Journal of Public Economic Theory, vol. 21, no. 5, pp. 799-803.
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Collins, J & Page, L 2019, 'The heritability of fertility makes world population stabilization unlikely in the foreseeable future', Evolution and Human Behavior, vol. 40, no. 1, pp. 105-111.
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© 2018 Elsevier Inc. The forecasting of the future growth of world population is of critical importance to anticipate and address a wide range of global challenges. The United Nations produces forecasts of fertility and world population every two years. As part of these forecasts, they model fertility levels in post-demographic transition countries as tending toward a long-term mean, leading to forecasts of flat or declining population in these countries. We substitute this assumption of constant long-term fertility with a dynamic model, theoretically founded in evolutionary biology, with heritable fertility. Rather than stabilizing around a long-term level for post-demographic transition countries, fertility tends to increase as children from larger families represent a larger share of the population and partly share their parents’ trait of having more offspring. Our results suggest that world population will grow larger in the future than currently anticipated.
Delavande, A & Zafar, B 2019, 'Gender Discrimination and Social Identity: Evidence from Urban Pakistan', Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol. 68, no. 1, pp. 1-40.
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This paper uses economic experiments to investigate how gender discrimination depends on the social identities of interacting parties. We randomly matched students pursuing bachelor-equivalent degrees in different institution types that represent distinct identities within Pakistani society. Our main finding is that gender discrimination is not uniform and varies as a function of the social identity of the matched individuals. While men of higher socioeconomic status (SES) exhibit no gender discrimination, men of lower SES and higher religiosity discriminate against women but only women with lower SES who are closest to them in social distance. This discrimination is largely taste based.
Delavande, A & Zafar, B 2019, 'University Choice: The Role of Expected Earnings, Nonpecuniary Outcomes, and Financial Constraints', Journal of Political Economy, vol. 127, no. 5, pp. 2343-2393.
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© 2019 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved. We investigate the determinants of students’ university choice in Pakistan, with a focus on �monetary returns, nonpecuniary factors enjoyed at school, and financial constraints. To mitigate the identification problem concerning the separation of preferences, expectations, and market constraints, we use rich data on subjective expectations, with direct measures of financial constraints, to estimate a life-cycle model of school choice jointly with school-specific expectations of dropping out. We find that labor market prospects play a small role. Instead, nonpecuniary outcomes, such as the school’s ideology, are the major determinants. Policy simulations suggest that relaxing financial constraints would have large welfare gains.
Garbarino, E, Slonim, R & Villeval, MC 2019, 'Loss aversion and lying behavior', Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, vol. 158, pp. 379-393.
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Gorgi, P, Koopman, SJ & Li, M 2019, 'Forecasting economic time series using score-driven dynamic models with mixed-data sampling', International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 35, no. 4, pp. 1735-1747.
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We introduce a mixed-frequency score-driven dynamic model for multiple time series where the score contributions from high-frequency variables are transformed by means of a mixed-data sampling weighting scheme. The resulting dynamic model delivers a flexible and easy-to-implement framework for the forecasting of low-frequency time series variables through the use of timely information from high-frequency variables.
We verify in-sample and out-of-sample performances of the model in an empirical study on the forecasting of U.S. headline inflation and GDP growth. In particular, we forecast monthly headline inflation using daily oil prices and quarterly GDP growth using a measure of financial risk. The forecasting results and other findings are promising. Our
proposed score-driven dynamic model with mixed-data sampling weighting outperforms competing models in terms of point and density forecasts.
Hafalir, I & Kurnaz, M 2019, 'Discriminatory auctions with resale', Economic Theory Bulletin, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 173-189.
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We consider multi-unit discriminatory auctions where ex ante symmetric bidders have single-unit demands and resale is allowed after the bidding stage. When bidders use the optimal auction to sell items in the resale stage, the equilibrium in the auction without resale is no longer an equilibrium in an auction with resale. We find a symmetric and monotone equilibrium when there are two units for sale, and, interestingly, we show that there may not be a symmetric and monotone equilibrium if there are more than two units.
Kettlewell, N 2019, 'Risk preference dynamics around life events', Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, vol. 162, pp. 66-84.
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© 2019 Elsevier B.V. Using a panel of Australians I estimate the dynamic relationship between common life events and risk preferences. Changes in financial circumstances, parenthood and family loss predict changes in risk preferences. Importantly the effects are largest closer to the event date and disappear over time. This supports a model of preference formation where risk preferences are (trend)stable but fluctuations are at least partly deterministic. The linkages between life events and risk preferences are explored. There is little evidence that changes in consumption, state dependence, or changes in mental health and mood explain the results. However, emotional stability is an influential moderator suggesting that emotions play an important role.
Kettlewell, N 2019, 'Utilization and Selection in an Ancillaries Health Insurance Market', Journal of Risk and Insurance, vol. 86, no. 4, pp. 989-1017.
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AbstractI study two important aspects of the Australian private ancillaries health insurance (PAHI) market—moral hazard and self‐selection. PAHI covers out‐of‐hospital health services including dental, optometry, physiotherapy, and chiropractic. Using instrumental variables methods, I find evidence that PAHI increases utilization, particularly for dental, physiotherapy, chiropractic, osteopathy, and acupuncture. I also find evidence of selection effects—both adverse and favorable. Several variables jointly predict a person's propensity to insure and to utilize health services. There is little evidence of self‐selection based on the joint probability of different health services, which has important implications for understanding the commercial success of PAHI.
Kettlewell, N & Yerokhin, O 2019, 'Area‐specific subsidies and population dynamics: Evidence from the Australian zone tax offset', Papers in Regional Science, vol. 98, no. 1, pp. 451-477.
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AbstractThis paper studies the effect of the zone tax offset (ZTO), a place based income subsidy implemented in rural Australia since 1945. The policy was intended to improve the welfare of inhabitants and provide an incentive for settlement. Our empirical approach exploits the geographical discontinuity in the eligibility for the subsidy to identify its causal effect on population growth. Using data on population by locality from the historical censuses we find that the ZTO had a positive but only temporary effect on population growth in the targeted areas.
Nikiforakis, N & Slonim, R 2019, 'Editors’ Preface: Trends in experimental economics (1975–2018)', Journal of the Economic Science Association, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 143-148.
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Rocha, M, Baddeley, M, Pollitt, M & Weeks, M 2019, 'Addressing self-disconnection among prepayment energy consumers: A behavioural approach', Energy Economics, vol. 81, pp. 273-286.
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Suzuki, T 2019, 'Choice set dependent performance and post-decision dissonance', Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, vol. 163, pp. 24-42.
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A decision maker (DM) selects a project from a set of alternatives with uncertain productivity. After the choice, she observes a signal about productivity and decides how much effort to put in. This paper analyzes the optimal decision problem of the DM who rationally filters information to deal with her post-decision cognitive dissonance. It is shown that the optimal effort level for a project can be affected by unchosen projects in her choice set, and the nature of the choice set-dependence is determined by the signal structure. Some comparative statics of choice set-dependence is also provided. Finally, based on the results, the optimal choice set design is also explored. This paper offers a simple framework to explain the experimental finding in psychology that people's effort level for a project can be enhanced when the project is chosen by themselves rather than by others.
Tan, J, Xiao, J & Zhou, X 2019, 'Market equilibrium and welfare effects of a fuel tax in China: The impact of consumers' response through driving patterns', Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, vol. 93, pp. 20-43.
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We investigate the market equilibrium and welfare effects of a fuel tax in China relative to an alternative policy instrument that rations the number of new automobile sales through auctioned quotas. Unlike those of previous studies, our modeling approach incorporates both household car purchase and utilization decisions, the latter of which have been ignored in previous studies on China's fuel tax. Ignoring this margin of choice will underestimate the fuel tax's ability to mitigate externalities. Using detailed household-level panel data and a fixed effects econometric specification, we estimate the fuel price elasticity of vehicle miles traveled is −0.59 on average. The results of the counterfactual analysis suggest that a 51% increase in tax-inclusive gasoline prices will reduce car sales by 24.9% but increase social welfare to a degree that depends on vehicles' lifetime. We find that compared to auctioned quotas, the fuel tax results in greater car sales but higher social welfare.
Temnyalov, E 2019, 'Points mechanisms and rewards programs', Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 436-457.
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AbstractI study points programs, such as frequent flyer and other rewards programs, as a revenue management tool. I develop a two‐period contracting model where a capacity‐constrained firm faces consumers who privately learn their valuations over time. The firm cannot commit to long‐term contracts, but it can commit to allocate any unsold capacity through a points program. This points scheme creates an endogenous and type‐dependent outside option for consumers, which generates novel incentives in the firm's pricing problem. It induces the firm to screen less ex interim, and to offer lower equilibrium prices, reversing the intuition of demand cannibalization.
Tomoeda, K 2019, 'Efficient investments in the implementation problem', Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 182, pp. 247-278.
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© 2019 Elsevier Inc. This paper identifies a condition for an efficient social choice rule to be fully implementable when we take into account investment efficiency. To do so, we extend the standard implementation problem to include endogenous ex ante and ex post investments. In our problem, the social planner aims to achieve efficiency in every equilibrium of a dynamic game in which agents strategically make investments before and after playing the mechanism. Our main theorem shows that a novel condition commitment-proofness is sufficient and necessary for an efficient social choice rule to be implementable in subgame-perfect equilibria. The availability of ex post investments is crucial in our model: there is no social choice rule that is efficient and implementable in subgame-perfect equilibria without ex post investments. We also show that our positive result continues to hold in the incomplete information setting.
Zhang, T, Shi, X, Zhang, D & Xiao, J 2019, 'Socio-economic development and electricity access in developing economies: A long-run model averaging approach', Energy Policy, vol. 132, pp. 223-231.
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© 2019 Elsevier Ltd Access to electricity continues to be a popular subject in empirical studies. However, the choice of key factors related to electricity access in the literature to date has been ad hoc due to the lack of a theoretical framework. This paper adopts a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach to selects important factors related to electricity access from 26 socioeconomic indicators using a sample of 48 developing countries, and reveal their long-term relationship with electricity access. The BMA approach allows us to identify the optimal empirical model when a theoretical foundation is not available. Moreover, it allows us to address the relative importance of variables using posterior inclusion probabilities and thus has clear policy relevance. Our results show that access to finance, education, economic development, infrastructure, and industrialisation are positively related to electricity access in the long-run. Although the long-run relationship does not indicate causality, it shows that to maintain this relationship, policy adjustments against any deviations from the relationship are needed. Our study suggests that electrification needs not only economic, educational and infrastructural development, but also private sector participation, governments’ commitment and political will, and integration with poverty reduction and other development schemes.
Bliemel, M, Agarwal, R, Bajada, C, Subhadrammal, D, Pugalia, S & Francis, J 1970, 'Entrepreneurial Ecosystems: Dynamics and Metrics', University-Industry Engagement Conference, Sydney, NSW.
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This paper presents our review of the literature and industry reports in relation to attempts to quantify and measure entrepreneurial ecosystems. Public interest and research on entrepreneurial ecosystems (EEs) has exploded in recent years, with many different conceptualisations of EEs. How they are opera-tionalised and quantified remains a challenge. However, having a reliable metric for the state or health of an EE remains of great interest to policy makers and researchers alike. In this study, we review the emerg-ing literature on EEs with a focus on attempts to quantify what they are and how they work. While there is an emerging concesus or synthesis of what EEs are, the literature and reports on their quantification remain scattered. Many quantitative studies are based on the practicality of using data with very limited availability. Others use macro-level or aggregated individual level data to make inferences about what occurs at the level of the firm, their immediate network, or how these interactions play out across the ecosystem across a very diverse set of actors. While startups are the primary outcome and primary stakeholder in EEs, the broader literature recognises that startups do not operate in isolation, and that their emergence depends on the actions and interaction with other stakeholders, such as larger corpora-tions, universities, government and other incumbents. A single-minded obsession about the number of startups and their fundings deprives policy makers and researchers the ability to study the whole system or context in which they exist and create jobs, wealth and innovations.
Sombatruang, N, Onwuzurike, L, Sasse, MA & Baddeley, M 1970, 'Factors influencing users to use unsecured wi-fi networks', Proceedings of the 12th Conference on Security and Privacy in Wireless and Mobile Networks, WiSec '19: 12th ACM Conference on Security and Privacy in Wireless and Mobile Networks, ACM, Miami, USA, pp. 203-214.
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© 2019 Association for Computing Machinery. Security experts often question why some users take actions that could expose them to security and privacy risks. Using unsecured Wi-Fi networks is one common example. Even though mobile data is now a more secure means to connect to the Internet, and is becoming faster and more affordable, many users continue to use unsecured Wi-Fi. To identify risk mitigating strategies, the research community first needs to understand the underlying factors driving users' decisions. Previous studies examined stated preferences - what people said they have done or think they would do - but that may not truly reflect real-life behavior. This study is the first to examine revealed preferences - what people actually do in naturalistic settings. Specifically, we investigated how users' desire to save mobile data and battery power influenced their decisions at the time when they connected to open unsecured Wi-Fi in the wild. We also examined whether the decision to use unsecured Wi-Fi networks could be driven by demographic factors and the user's perception of the risk associated with using these networks. We recruited 71 participants in the UK to install My Wi-Fi Choices, our own Android app, on their mobile device, and run it for three months in the background. The app captured details of mobile data allowance and battery power on participants' devices whenever they used open unsecured Wi-Fi networks.We found that depleting mobile data significantly drove participants to use these networks, especially when their remaining allowance reached approximately 30%. Battery level, however, did not play a significant role. The perceived risks of unsecured Wi-Fi did not affect the decision-making either. Age, education, and income level were also correlated with increased use of unsecured Wi-Fi.
